The 9M barrier is getting very close. It probably won't quite break today, but even if it does not, barring technical problems it should break late tomorrow or Sunday morning at the latest, as I am away from home for a large part of Saturday.9M updates
9M updates
It is time for yet another xM thread. The 9M barrier is getting very close. It probably won't quite break today, but even if it does not, barring technical problems it should break late tomorrow or Sunday morning at the latest, as I am away from home for a large part of Saturday.
The 9M barrier is getting very close. It probably won't quite break today, but even if it does not, barring technical problems it should break late tomorrow or Sunday morning at the latest, as I am away from home for a large part of Saturday.
I guess that would depend on your estimated monthly average... let's see...
If I quit right this instant and you got...
1M per month... about 11 months to catchup.
500k per month... about 23 months to catchup.
300k per month... about 37 months to catchup.
I don't want to be mean, but I think you fell behind more than 3 years fairly long time ago. On the new ones list things would be easier. Roughly 15 months at 100k / month and even with 50k / month average... about 2,5 years would suffice, if I did nothing at all.
Time just has funny factors built in... if I did 10k updates / month for 2,5 years, by that time I would have added a month to your catchup assuming 300k / month.
I am not saying you can't catch me... but you have to break several of your own records to do so...
And anyone behind you has an even longer journey. Especially considering the fact that it seems like we have lost both Kerebo and Gmmmpresser. 
Postponer and Halaster are off even longer... That leaves the top 10 with Djambo (at less than half your figure), xpolockx (would need almost triple just to catch you) and Hybuir (who most likely would need more than x 4 to reach even you).
You stand a good chance of breaking 10M... but who will be the 3rd to do that? I have no idea, it's simply too far off. And there is always the chance that the answer will be: nobody. How many of us will there in three years to see? I don't know that either. 3 years backwards doesn't seem very long... but forwards... it's a LOT of time.
If I quit right this instant and you got...
1M per month... about 11 months to catchup.
500k per month... about 23 months to catchup.
300k per month... about 37 months to catchup.
I don't want to be mean, but I think you fell behind more than 3 years fairly long time ago. On the new ones list things would be easier. Roughly 15 months at 100k / month and even with 50k / month average... about 2,5 years would suffice, if I did nothing at all.
Time just has funny factors built in... if I did 10k updates / month for 2,5 years, by that time I would have added a month to your catchup assuming 300k / month.
I am not saying you can't catch me... but you have to break several of your own records to do so...
And anyone behind you has an even longer journey. Especially considering the fact that it seems like we have lost both Kerebo and Gmmmpresser. Postponer and Halaster are off even longer... That leaves the top 10 with Djambo (at less than half your figure), xpolockx (would need almost triple just to catch you) and Hybuir (who most likely would need more than x 4 to reach even you).You stand a good chance of breaking 10M... but who will be the 3rd to do that? I have no idea, it's simply too far off. And there is always the chance that the answer will be: nobody. How many of us will there in three years to see? I don't know that either. 3 years backwards doesn't seem very long... but forwards... it's a LOT of time.
By 3 years I did only mean how far behind I arrive at goals, rather than how long it'd take me to catch you up; I never will catch up, that's clear to everyone 
11M behind you, and it's taken me seven and a half years to do 9M updates so far, yeah, 'nuff said
1M in a month, I don't think will ever happen, my record was 800k, and at the time I believed I might make 1M, but it'd take so much dedicated censusing, without doing anything else, that I'll never manage to put the time into it for a month straight, that's sure.
And yes, it's impossible to tell who'll be 3rd to reach 10M, I'm so far clear of the next active that I'm likely to be 2nd, assuming I don't give up, but as you say, everyone further back is either seemingly inactive or well back, wonder how many years it'll take anyone else to even reach 9M? It'll be interesting to see, if anyone at all.
11M behind you, and it's taken me seven and a half years to do 9M updates so far, yeah, 'nuff said 1M in a month, I don't think will ever happen, my record was 800k, and at the time I believed I might make 1M, but it'd take so much dedicated censusing, without doing anything else, that I'll never manage to put the time into it for a month straight, that's sure.
And yes, it's impossible to tell who'll be 3rd to reach 10M, I'm so far clear of the next active that I'm likely to be 2nd, assuming I don't give up, but as you say, everyone further back is either seemingly inactive or well back, wonder how many years it'll take anyone else to even reach 9M? It'll be interesting to see, if anyone at all.
*chuckle* And the point was that you would have to press that for 11+ months, not just one.
Some things are, however, already certain or nearly so:
Djambo will push the minimum needed into new ones top 10 over 500k... because he is only 18 (eighteen) short and four unprocessed files remain at the moment. Padanfain will most likely bypass xpolockx before the month is over and take place 8. Bringoutyourdead is close to catching Postponer and exceeding 800k, but at current speed that will be next month, not this one.
On the updates top 10 the gaps are mostly so big that changes are long time in coming. However, considering how much Padanfain has been doing... Hybuir might lose that 10th place in a couple of months. And if things continue roughly as they look now, Bringoutyourdead will rise from 9th to possibly as high as 6th before Christmas.
Some things are, however, already certain or nearly so:
Djambo will push the minimum needed into new ones top 10 over 500k... because he is only 18 (eighteen) short and four unprocessed files remain at the moment. Padanfain will most likely bypass xpolockx before the month is over and take place 8. Bringoutyourdead is close to catching Postponer and exceeding 800k, but at current speed that will be next month, not this one.
On the updates top 10 the gaps are mostly so big that changes are long time in coming. However, considering how much Padanfain has been doing... Hybuir might lose that 10th place in a couple of months. And if things continue roughly as they look now, Bringoutyourdead will rise from 9th to possibly as high as 6th before Christmas.